Colts Win!!!

http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/session/1323/replay/

Session this morning....winning $53.70.


Can you believe the best coach in the NFL would make blunder like going for a 4th and 2 on your own 28 under the circumstances of the game last night? I was totally shocked and felt as though it was about 30% that Manning and company score if the Pats punt. It is 5% if they get the first down. The only factor remaining is the chance of getting the first down.

If it is 50/50 then its definitely a punt situation...however I'm sure Belichick thought is 75/25 or greater which swings the math in favor of going for a first down. A first down results in (5%*25%) = 1.25% chance of the Colts winning....and failing on 4th down results in (.25*.80)=20%. 20%+1.25%<30% if they punt.

Belichick took the high variance route FTW and will be questioned for this call for the rest of the season. On paper it doesn't look so bad!

Go Colts!