Learn to fold...

I am running way above epectation this month even though I started almost 5 buyins in the hole on my first session of the month. I'm ahead $191.85 playing 50nl over 2165 hands. I have avoided any big pots with marginal holdings and have laid down some TPTK and over pairs to the board. This is easy to say and do at 50nl... but the competition gets tougher as I move back up to 200nl. My win rate is over 8ptbb/100 none the less...I'd like to see an extended run of that!

Played a tourney today

Played a $3 rebuy tourney on full Tilt today. Finished 27th out of 1700+ but should have been much better. Flopped 2 pair and got most of my chips in against top pair and a open-ended straight draw. He got there on the turn and I blanked the river. All in on the next hand and I was out. Cashed for $60...also won another $58.85 at 50nl.

I remember why I dont play many tournaments. Played 6 hours for not much reward.

Colts Win!!!

http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/session/1323/replay/

Session this morning....winning $53.70.


Can you believe the best coach in the NFL would make blunder like going for a 4th and 2 on your own 28 under the circumstances of the game last night? I was totally shocked and felt as though it was about 30% that Manning and company score if the Pats punt. It is 5% if they get the first down. The only factor remaining is the chance of getting the first down.

If it is 50/50 then its definitely a punt situation...however I'm sure Belichick thought is 75/25 or greater which swings the math in favor of going for a first down. A first down results in (5%*25%) = 1.25% chance of the Colts winning....and failing on 4th down results in (.25*.80)=20%. 20%+1.25%<30% if they punt.

Belichick took the high variance route FTW and will be questioned for this call for the rest of the season. On paper it doesn't look so bad!

Go Colts!

http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/session/1320/replay/

Another win($72.15)...back ahead for the month.

Big NFL gamne tonight with the Colts hosting the Pats. Went to this game last year as Indy won. Alot at stake with these being the best teams in the AFC this year.

Bought tickets preseason for the Titans/Colts game...wish it woulda been this one!!! Go Colts!!!

Staking a player

I am staking a player in a local 1/2 nl game that plays every Thursday evening. He was stuck $600 but had good $400 win last week. He plays with make-up and agreement once he gets on the profitable side is 50/50 the first $2000 profit...30/70 the second $2000 and 20/80 the last $2000. Once hes ahead the $6000 our stake is over.

He will make $4000 and I will make $2000 with not much risk for me a none for him. Players are normally pretty bad as we watched a certain regular lose ~$1500...$100 at a time! I'll be playing in the game on occasion, but he will play much more than me. I'm probably good for 7-8 hours a month and he will be closer to 20.

Computer Crash

My laptop that I play 99% of my poker on crashed about a month ago. I took a week off before I bought a new one and haven't had the desire to play much because all of my data is still in the old unit. I've only played about 500 hands in the last 3 weeks and still don't have a great desire to play.

A few hands from last night a tonight...coolerville last night losing $218.55. I dropped to 50nl since I hadn't played in a while...


http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/hand/70185/replay/

http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/session/1313/replay/



tonight was better winning $150.35



http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/session/1314/replay/

http://www.stoxpoker.com/pokertools/session/1315/replay/

2009 Main Event

Unless Darvin Moon catches another good run of cards, I expect Joe Cada to win this years WSOP Main Event. The final table was crazy playing down to the final 2. The chip leader with 4 left busted 4th and the chip leader with 3 left busted 3rd. Suck-outs were everywhere and it seems these two were meant to play each other for the bracelet.