Sunday, August 31, 2008

Nearing 8K...

I have won $126.70 over 326 hands in the last few days...both sessions were very short playing 6 tables for about 15 minutes. I doubled up on a couple of tables and stopped my play with winning sessions. Total bankroll is up to $7633.58. I should receive another $150 or so when my rakeback is paid next month.

www.rakebreak.com is going to start paying out each week instead of monthly which is good for me too! I am also eligible for free www.stoxpoker.com training based on the volume of play I have through rakebreak. I must register and pay a registration fee of $100 which I should recovery fairly quick. I think I should take advantage of the opportunity as I was leaning towards www.cardrunners.com and their training site. I will give stoxpoker a try for a few months to see if it can improve my play and move to cardrunners if I don't find value in their training,

Another positive to rakeback trough rakebreak is the $20k freeroll they offer for those that create $500+ in MGR through FullTilt. I have qualified every month for over a year, but the freeroll is scheduled during a time when I can't play on Sunday afternoons. I should be able to play from October to March, but April through September just doesn't work.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Great read...

I have played almost 6000 hands since my last update and have won a paltry $16.85...just normal variance with poker. The first two weeks of the month were great and including my rakeback I'm ahead a little over $750 this month. That is about 6.25ptbb/100. My rate was probably over 15/100 two weeks ago. Bankroll at $7506.88



My move up to 100nl an 200nl will be coming after my work season slows unless I hit another heater in the next month. I'm also experimenting with multi-tabling 10+ tables while still maintaining good positive results. I also datamine the 100nl and 200nl games to give some knowledge of the players. One of my weaknesses has been table selection and this will be more important as I move up in limits.























Funny picture I copied from http://www.tristancre8ive.blogspot.com/ A very good online tournament player, Tristan "cre8tive" Wade. It's a funny picture, but sometimes I wish a select few individuals would wake up to a world like this...Nothing applies to them as they are above the law, too good or whatever!!!


Reading a great article by Justin Bonomo in the July issue of Bluff Magazine he talks about the math behind semi-bluffing, and how few times the opponent has to fold to make most plays +EV longterm. Basicly always applying pressure to your opponents giving you the added win % of making your opponent fold. With the semi-bluff you also add the amount of equity you have in the hand which hopefully would add to 50+%.

Poker is a risk/reward game where to generalize things we can risk $ to win $. For example we bet the pot($100) to win the pot($100)...with zero equity in the hand, we would need our opponent to fold (fold equity) more than call (call equity) to make the bet profitable.

SO here goes my attempt at his math...(C)all = (F)old by using the $100 example above and I have 0% equity in the hand...if I bet $100 to win the $100 pot...I win $100 when my opponent folds (100F) and I lose $100 when my opponent calls (100C)... 100F=100C...F=C

So again with 100% (E)quity between my opponent and myself E(1)=F+C... now we have two variables and we can express C in terms of F by (C=1-F) and combining the two equations we get F=1-f or 2F=1...F=.5 or Fold Equity is 50%. So by getting our opponent to fold 50 % of the time we break even...we win $ if the % is higher.

Now lets add some hand equity to the equation (Semi-bluff) of 25% and this translates into us winning $200 (pot + his stack) 25% of the time and losing $100 (my stack) 75% of the time.
Ce=(.75)(100)-(.25)(200)
Ce=75-50=25
100(F)olds-Cequity=0
100F-Ce=0
100F-25=0
100F=25
F=.25
25% opponent fold makes this bet a positive play

He calls it 8th grade algebra, but it shows how bet/raise is the best play even when we may have less than 50% equity in the hand...

Friday, August 15, 2008

Better to be lucky than good!

I've won $203.25 over the last 2 nights in 61 minutes of play. I played 100nl tonight with one good hand to note...


FullTiltPoker Game #7665332058: Table Moore (edu, 6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:24:46 ET - 2008/08/15
Seat 1: RonPaul4Pres ($121.25)
Seat 2: ched1986 ($413.90)
Seat 3: birdiemachine ($108.85)
Seat 4: eggflue ($80)
Seat 5: DroneMan84 ($101.50)
Seat 6: joshuaashtondzl ($111.95)
ched1986 posts the small blind of $0.50
birdiemachine posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to birdiemachine [7d Ad]
eggflue has 15 seconds left to act
eggflue folds
DroneMan84 folds
joshuaashtondzl raises to $3.50
RonPaul4Pres folds
ched1986 folds
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine raises to $12.50
joshuaashtondzl calls $9 I figure he has 88-JJ,AQ,AK...
*** FLOP *** [4s 5c 7s]
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine bets $19 ....Good flop for me vs. AK or AQ
joshuaashtondzl calls $19 = over pair
*** TURN *** [4s 5c 7s] [7h]
birdiemachine checks ...give him some rope
joshuaashtondzl has 15 seconds left to act
joshuaashtondzl bets $80.45, and is all in
birdiemachine calls $77.35, and is all in
joshuaashtondzl shows [Td Ts]
birdiemachine shows [7d Ad]
Uncalled bet of $3.10 returned to joshuaashtondzl
*** RIVER *** [4s 5c 7s 7h] [Qh]
joshuaashtondzl shows two pair, Tens and Sevens
birdiemachine shows three of a kind, Sevens
birdiemachine wins the pot ($215.20) with three of a kind, Sevens
joshuaashtondzl adds $96.90
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $218.20 Rake $3
Board: [4s 5c 7s 7h Qh]
Seat 1: RonPaul4Pres (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: ched1986 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: birdiemachine (big blind) showed [7d Ad] and won ($215.20) with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 4: eggflue didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: DroneMan84 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: joshuaashtondzl showed [Td Ts] and lost with two pair, Tens and Sevens


I was very lucky in this hand, but I also created my luck by getting to the turn without having to make a tough decision. My opponent's play was not very good on all streets with the possible exception of pre-flop. At higher levels a 4-bet would be justified especially against LAG players. His call on the flop tells me he believes he has the best hand...with just a single pair, a raise would have been his best play, he gets all hands to fold except sets, KK, AA and may even get JJ and QQ to fold...probably not but maybe.




Bankroll stands at $7490.03



Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Bam!!! I finally run goot!

after breaking even for an extended period of time I finally break through tonight and win $220.20 in 61 minutes of play. Bankroll has moved up to $7286.78.

Most all of my profit came from one table...


FullTiltPoker Game #7638452875: Table Clifton (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:17:07 ET - 2008/08/13
Seat 1: Hotsause2407 ($61.55)
Seat 2: Primatologist ($52.10)
Seat 3: smileagain ($54.60)
Seat 4: birdiemachine ($53.20)
Seat 5: fuzzy1946 ($50)
Seat 6: BillyBob47856 ($59.05)
fuzzy1946 posts the small blind of $0.25
BillyBob47856 posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to birdiemachine [8c Th]
Hotsause2407 folds
Primatologist folds
smileagain folds
birdiemachine raises to $1.75
fuzzy1946 calls $1.50
BillyBob47856 folds
*** FLOP *** [3c Jh 8d]
fuzzy1946 has 15 seconds left to act
fuzzy1946 bets $0.50 ...
birdiemachine raises to $3.50
fuzzy1946 calls $3
*** TURN *** [3c Jh 8d] [4h]
fuzzy1946 checks
birdiemachine bets $8.50
fuzzy1946 calls $8.50
*** RIVER *** [3c Jh 8d 4h] [Td]
fuzzy1946 has 15 seconds left to act
fuzzy1946 checks
birdiemachine bets $39.45, and is all in
fuzzy1946 folds
Uncalled bet of $39.45 returned to birdiemachine
birdiemachine mucks
birdiemachine wins the pot ($26.60)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $28 Rake $1.40
Board: [3c Jh 8d 4h Td]
Seat 1: Hotsause2407 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Primatologist didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: smileagain didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: birdiemachine (button) collected ($26.60), mucked
Seat 5: fuzzy1946 (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 6: BillyBob47856 (big blind) folded before the Flop


FullTiltPoker Game #7638509705: Table Clifton (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:21:20 ET - 2008/08/13
fuzzy1946: primatologist, ru working right now?
Seat 1: Hotsause2407 ($60.30)
Seat 2: Primatologist ($56.30)
Seat 3: smileagain ($53.85)
Seat 4: birdiemachine ($68.35)
Seat 5: fuzzy1946 ($36.50)
Seat 6: BillyBob47856 ($53.05)
birdiemachine posts the small blind of $0.25
fuzzy1946 posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to birdiemachine [Td Kd]
BillyBob47856 folds
Hotsause2407 folds
Primatologist folds
smileagain folds
Primatologist: am i working?
birdiemachine raises to $1.50
fuzzy1946 calls $1
*** FLOP *** [7d 5c Kc]
birdiemachine bets $1.50
Primatologist: what do you mean
fuzzy1946 raises to $3
birdiemachine calls $1.50
*** TURN *** [7d 5c Kc] [2h]
birdiemachine checks
fuzzy1946 bets $4.50
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
fuzzy1946: conducting a study
birdiemachine calls $4.50
*** RIVER *** [7d 5c Kc 2h] [2s]
Primatologist: oh lol no
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine checks
fuzzy1946 bets $8.50
Primatologist: just a silly screenname
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine raises to $59.35, and is all in
fuzzy1946 calls $19, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $31.85 returned to birdiemachine
*** SHOW DOWN ***
birdiemachine shows [Td Kd] two pair, Kings and Twos
fuzzy1946 mucks
birdiemachine wins the pot ($70) with two pair, Kings and Twos
fuzzy1946 adds $50
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $73 Rake $3
Board: [7d 5c Kc 2h 2s]
Seat 1: Hotsause2407 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Primatologist didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: smileagain (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: birdiemachine (small blind) showed [Td Kd] and won ($70) with two pair, Kings and Twos
Seat 5: fuzzy1946 (big blind) mucked [9h Kh] - two pair, Kings and Twos
Seat 6: BillyBob47856 didn't bet (folded)


FullTiltPoker Game #7638699219: Table Clifton (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:34:59 ET - 2008/08/13
Seat 1: BENT LINE ($48.75)
Seat 2: Primatologist ($58.05)
Seat 3: akcbr954 ($50)
Seat 4: birdiemachine ($219.95)
Seat 5: fuzzy1946 ($39.90)
Seat 6: BillyBob47856 ($47.85)
birdiemachine posts the small blind of $0.25
fuzzy1946 posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to birdiemachine [9s 9d]
BillyBob47856 folds
BENT LINE folds
Primatologist raises to $1.75
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine raises to $6.25
fuzzy1946 folds
Primatologist calls $4.50
*** FLOP *** [Jh 2c 3s]
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine bets $10
Primatologist calls $10
*** TURN *** [Jh 2c 3s] [9h]
birdiemachine checks
Primatologist checks
*** RIVER *** [Jh 2c 3s 9h] [Js]
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine bets $203.70, and is all in
Primatologist calls $41.80, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $161.90 returned to birdiemachine
*** SHOW DOWN ***
birdiemachine shows [9s 9d] a full house, Nines full of Jacks
Primatologist mucks
birdiemachine wins the pot ($113.60) with a full house, Nines full of Jacks
Primatologist is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $116.60 Rake $3
Board: [Jh 2c 3s 9h Js]
Seat 1: BENT LINE didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Primatologist (button) mucked [3h 3d] - a full house, Threes full of Jacks
Seat 3: akcbr954 is sitting out
Seat 4: birdiemachine (small blind) showed [9s 9d] and won ($113.60) with a full house, Nines full of Jacks
Seat 5: fuzzy1946 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: BillyBob47856 didn't bet (folded)


FullTiltPoker Game #7638611511: Table Clifton (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:28:26 ET - 2008/08/13
Seat 1: Hotsause2407 ($58.50)
Seat 2: Primatologist ($50)
Seat 3: smileagain ($53.10)
Seat 4: birdiemachine ($165.75)
Seat 5: fuzzy1946 ($49)
Seat 6: BillyBob47856 ($45.30)
BillyBob47856 posts the small blind of $0.25
Hotsause2407 posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to birdiemachine [Kc Qh]
Primatologist folds
smileagain folds
birdiemachine raises to $1.75
fuzzy1946 folds
BillyBob47856 folds
Hotsause2407 calls $1.25
*** FLOP *** [Ks Qc 4c]
Hotsause2407 checks
birdiemachine bets $3
Hotsause2407 calls $3
*** TURN *** [Ks Qc 4c] [Ac]
Hotsause2407 checks
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine bets $7.50
Primatologist: makes you wonder
Hotsause2407 raises to $26.50
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine raises to $161, and is all in
Hotsause2407 calls $27.25, and is all in
birdiemachine shows [Kc Qh]
Hotsause2407 shows [Js Ts]
Uncalled bet of $107.25 returned to birdiemachine
*** RIVER *** [Ks Qc 4c Ac] [Qd]
birdiemachine shows a full house, Queens full of Kings
Hotsause2407 shows a straight, Ace high
birdiemachine wins the pot ($114.25) with a full house, Queens full of Kings
Hotsause2407 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $117.25 Rake $3
Board: [Ks Qc 4c Ac Qd]
Seat 1: Hotsause2407 (big blind) showed [Js Ts] and lost with a straight, Ace high
Seat 2: Primatologist didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: smileagain didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: birdiemachine showed [Kc Qh] and won ($114.25) with a full house, Queens full of Kings
Seat 5: fuzzy1946 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: BillyBob47856 (small blind) folded before the Flop



FullTiltPoker Game #7638592693: Table Clifton (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:27:05 ET - 2008/08/13
Seat 1: Hotsause2407 ($58.50)
Seat 2: Primatologist ($58.30)
Seat 3: smileagain ($53.10)
Seat 4: birdiemachine ($109.20)
Seat 5: fuzzy1946 ($49.75)
Seat 6: BillyBob47856 ($45.80)
birdiemachine posts the small blind of $0.25
fuzzy1946 posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to birdiemachine [As Ad]
BillyBob47856 folds
Hotsause2407 folds
Primatologist raises to $1.75
smileagain folds
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine raises to $6.50
fuzzy1946 folds
Primatologist raises to $20
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine raises to $34
Primatologist raises to $58.30, and is all in
birdiemachine calls $24.30
Primatologist shows [Kd Kh]
birdiemachine shows [As Ad]
*** FLOP *** [6c 5h Qd]
*** TURN *** [6c 5h Qd] [5d]
*** RIVER *** [6c 5h Qd 5d] [8c]
Primatologist shows two pair, Kings and Fives
birdiemachine shows two pair, Aces and Fives
birdiemachine wins the pot ($114.10) with two pair, Aces and Fives
Primatologist is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $117.10 Rake $3
Board: [6c 5h Qd 5d 8c]
Seat 1: Hotsause2407 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Primatologist showed [Kd Kh] and lost with two pair, Kings and Fives
Seat 3: smileagain (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: birdiemachine (small blind) showed [As Ad] and won ($114.10) with two pair, Aces and Fives
Seat 5: fuzzy1946 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: BillyBob47856 didn't bet (folded)


Can I win $8500 over the next 4.5 months...only if I move up in limits!!!

Later!

Thursday, August 7, 2008

In coolerville...

FullTiltPoker Game #7548165084: $11,500 Guarantee (56682374), Table 67 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:50:42 ET - 2008/08/07
Seat 1: SEVGIDENIZI (5,610)
Seat 2: November1961 (10,285)
Seat 3: xgertx (4,495)
Seat 4: AmericasChamp76 (3,855)
Seat 5: fescher (4,329)
Seat 6: Mybuy (4,260)
Seat 7: malone771824 (6,335)
Seat 8: BabaBooeyHW100 (2,170)
Seat 9: birdiemachine (2,095)
BabaBooeyHW100 posts the small blind of 40
birdiemachine posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to birdiemachine [4d 4s]
SEVGIDENIZI calls 80
November1961 folds
xgertx folds
AmericasChamp76 folds
malone771824: wasnt a bluff clearly
fescher has 15 seconds left to act
fescher folds
Mybuy folds
malone771824 folds
BabaBooeyHW100 calls 40
birdiemachine checks
*** FLOP *** [2h 4c 6s]
BabaBooeyHW100 checks
fescher: js
birdiemachine checks
SEVGIDENIZI checks
*** TURN *** [2h 4c 6s] [4h]
BabaBooeyHW100 checks
birdiemachine bets 160
SEVGIDENIZI calls 160
BabaBooeyHW100 folds
*** RIVER *** [2h 4c 6s 4h] [6d]
birdiemachine has 15 seconds left to act
birdiemachine bets 560
SEVGIDENIZI raises to 5,370, and is all in
birdiemachine calls 1,295, and is all in
Uncalled bet of 3,515 returned to SEVGIDENIZI
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SEVGIDENIZI shows [6c 6h] four of a kind, Sixes
birdiemachine shows [4d 4s] four of a kind, Fours
SEVGIDENIZI wins the pot (4,270) with four of a kind, Sixes
birdiemachine stands up
SEVGIDENIZI stands up
November1961 stands up
xgertx stands up
AmericasChamp76 stands up
fescher stands up
Mybuy stands up
malone771824 stands up
BabaBooeyHW100 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4,270 Rake 0
Board: [2h 4c 6s 4h 6d]
Seat 1: SEVGIDENIZI showed [6c 6h] and won (4,270) with four of a kind, Sixes
Seat 2: November1961 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: xgertx didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: AmericasChamp76 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: fescher didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: Mybuy didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: malone771824 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: BabaBooeyHW100 (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 9: birdiemachine (big blind) showed [4d 4s] and lost with four of a kind, Fours







I have lost a little over the last couple of weeks, but it seems I can't win any big pots as of late...Many of which I have my opponents dominated. I decided to play a tournament on FullTilt to try something different. It looks like it's just the way things are going.

I have my rakeback coming in the next week which should make me positive since my last post, but when things start falling my way, I'm going to be killing!!!

Later!